Primos Prognose

The Primos forecast (Primos-prognose), developed by ABF Research, is the definitive standard for demographic and housing demand forecasting in the Netherlands. It is officially commissioned and utilized by the Dutch national government (Ministry of BZK) to calculate the national housing shortage and set construction targets.

The model projects population growth, household formation, and housing demand down to the municipal and neighborhood level up to the year 2040 and beyond. It calculates the 'statistical housing shortage' (statistisch woningtekort), which was estimated at 396,000 homes (4.8% of the housing stock) in 2025.

For real estate developers, investors, and municipalities, Primos data is indispensable. It dictates exactly where new homes are needed and for which target groups (e.g., seniors, singles, families), directly influencing zoning decisions and large-scale development feasibility studies.